Candidates · Choose Your Core Four · Community Activism · Elections

Learn If You Live In A Pivot County

Check these Ballotpedia links and see if you live in a Pivot County–an area that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and voted for Donald Trump in 2016.

 

Ballotpedia, a website that comprehensively covers candidates and races at the local, state, and federal levels in America, has identified 206 “pivot counties” in 34 states.

 

On average, Obama won these counties with an average margin of victory of 12.23 percent in 2008 and 8.22 percent in 2012 before Trump won them with an average margin of victory of 11.43 in 2016.

 

Are any of these counties near you?

 

The Obama-Obama-Trump voting pattern indicates areas that could tilt back toward the Democrats in 2018 and later elections.

 

Ballotpedia notes that 19 states with a Democratic or Independent sitting senator running for re-election in 2018 have at least one Pivot County within their borders.

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

 

 

See Ballotpedia’s list of the 206 Pivot Counties:

https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_Pivot_Counties_-_the_206_counties_that_voted_Obama-Obama-Trump

 

 

Here are the list of counties by state:

https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties_by_state

 

 

Here’s how the Pivot Counties overlap with Congressional districts (this is the entry that notes that 19 incumbent Democratic or Independent Senators come from states that have at least one Pivot County):

https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties:_How_the_206_Obama-Obama-Trump_counties_intersect_with_Congressional_districts

 

 

Learn about the Pivot Counties’ historic voting patterns:

https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties:_Looking_at_the_historical_voting_patterns_of_the_206_Obama-Obama-Trump_counties_from_1964-2016

 

 

See the Ballotpedia home page:

https://ballotpedia.org/Main_Page

 

 

Donate to Ballotpedia ($18 corresponds to the cost of a single article):

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia:Donate

 

 

Like Ballotpedia on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Ballotpedia?ref=br_tf

 

Follow Ballotpedia on Twitter:

@ballotpedia

Community Activism · Elections · Use Your Power, Recruit Friends

Smoke Out Your Friends Who Didn’t Vote Last Year, and Cultivate Them

This OTYCD entry originally posted in April 2017, but with the mid-terms approaching and the stakes rising, we are reposting past posts that discuss key things you can do to push back against Trump.

 

Start a slow, quiet campaign to identify your friends who didn’t vote for president last November, and cultivate them with an eye toward getting them to the polls in 2018 and 2020.

 

One of the more shocking facts from the 2016 election was how few people voted. According to numbers from the United States Election Project, 59.3 percent of eligible voters turned out and cast a ballot for the president. (60 percent showed up and voted for something; the 0.7 percent gap represents people who voted but did not vote for president.)

 

That’s stupid-crazy low for an advanced democracy like America’s. Pitiable, in fact. Yet it’s actually a better turnout than 2012, which tallied 58.6 percent of eligible voters, and it might be the best electoral turnout recorded between 1972 and 2000.

 

Voter turnout needs to improve. Two out of five eligible voters stayed home. If more of those abstainers had come out, we might not be in the mess we’re in today. If you’re mad at Clinton’s narrow loss to Trump, don’t vent your rage on people who voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson–at least they went to the polls. Point your ire at the 40 percent of voters who never made it.

 

Ok, we’re joking about that–don’t actually get mad at them. At least some wanted to cast a ballot, but could not. That said, we’re on watch for articles that explain why people who can vote don’t vote, and why they say they chose to stay home in 2016. When we find them, we’ll post about them.

 

Here’s what we know right now. According to 538, voters who stayed home in 2016 probably cost Clinton the election:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

 

In particular, turnout was low among young people (aged 18-29) and non-whites.

 

The silver lining to this? We know that Democratic-leaning and left-leaning people were less likely to go to the polls. You, personally, can help fix that.

 

Think about your friends. Do you know who among them did not vote? The math says that you probably have at least some non-voters in your midst. Maybe more than 60 percent of your friends voted, but not all of them.

 

If you know which of your friends did not vote, look for opportunities to discuss it with them. Don’t do this in a punitive way! Simply ask if they voted, and if they say no, ask why. Keep your tone of voice neutral.

 

If it’s something as simple as not being registered, or not having a ride to the polls, do what you can to remove those obstacles. The web site below will tell your friend if they’re registered to vote in their state:

http://www.canivote.org

 

If they are not registered, do what you can to help them register. If they would have voted if they had had transportation to the polls, make plans for 2018–see if you can give them a ride personally, or arrange for a cab.

 

If they had other reasons for not voting–they don’t think their vote matters, they didn’t like the candidates, they don’t trust the system, etc.–just keep talking to them. Don’t always talk politics–see to it that about 80 percent of the time, you talk about something else. And when you do talk politics, only occasionally talk about voting.

 

Build and strengthen your relationship with your non-voting friends with an eye on the coming 2018 race, and with the hopes of enticing those people to come with you to vote in the midterms.

 

 

See the full 2016 election numbers, compiled by the United States Election Project. It includes grand totals and state-by-state breakdowns:

http://www.electproject.org/2016g

 

 

Bookmark this page from the ElectProject site, which lists links to the boards of elections for all 50 states and the District of Columbia (scroll down a bit):

http://www.electproject.org/useful-election-links

 

 

See a 2012 piece on 538 that gives numbers on the 2012 turnout:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

 

 

Follow professor Michael P McDonald, the polysci guy behind the United States Election Project, on Twitter:

@ElectProject

 

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

Elections · Read, Educate Yourself, Prepare · Save These Tools · Use Your Power, Recruit Friends

Look Over Luvvie’s List of Black Women Who Are Running For Office, and Support Them

This OTYCD entry originally posted in December 2017.

Look over this list of black women, compiled by Luvvie, who are running for office, and support them.

Black voters, and in particular, black women voters, have done the right thing at the polls, over and over again. A total of 94 percent of black women who voted for president in November 2016 chose Hillary Clinton, and 98 percent of Alabamian black women voters cast their ballots for Doug Jones in the December 12 special election for senate.

After Jones won, there was a loud and long-overdue call for the Democratic Party to recognize the contributions of black women, and to cultivate them.

You can, and should, help in that effort.

Luvvie (that’s the name she goes by) runs the Awesomely Luvvie blog. After Jones won, she compiled a list of more than 100 black women who are running for office, as challengers and incumbents.

She stresses that a listing is not an endorsement–‘This is a database, not a vouching for. Think about it as a phone book.’ And she stresses that the list is a labor of love, and updates won’t come immediately.

We at OTYCD encourage you to look over the list and see if you can support any of these candidates with time, money, word of mouth, or some combination of the three.

The list is alphabetical, by state. It covers federal, state, and local races.

Know that not everyone on this list is a Democrat. Know also that OTYCD will be going through Luvvie’s list, and we expect to choose at least some of the candidates for dedicated blog posts. We also invite your suggestions for coverage. We wish to prioritize those who are involved in special elections that will occur before November 2018, but we’ll cover November 2018 candidates too, of course.

 

See Luvvie’s list here:

https://www.awesomelyluvvie.com/black-women-in-politics

 

Follow Luvvie on Twitter:

@Luvvie

 

Like her on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/AwesomelyLuvvie/

 

Luvvie also cited the work of Higher Heights, which aims to “mobilize one million Black  women and dollars by 2020 in order to harness their collective economic and voting power.” See its website:

http://www.higherheightsforamerica.org

 

See Higher Heights’s ‘Sistas to Watch’ page:

http://www.higherheightsforamerica.org/sistas_to_watch

 

Donate to Higher Heights:

https://higherheightsforamerica.nationbuilder.com/2018_donate

 

Also see Luvvie’s shop (she has a Maxine Waters collection!):

Awesomely Luvvie

 

And check in on the #BlackWomenLead hashtag on Twitter, too.

 

Community Activism · Elections · Use Your Power, Recruit Friends

Smoke Out Your Friends Who Didn’t Vote Last Year, and Cultivate Them

This OTYCD entry originally posted in April 2017.

Start a slow, quiet campaign to identify your friends who didn’t vote for president last November, and cultivate them with an eye toward getting them to the polls in 2018 and 2020.

One of the more shocking facts from the 2016 election was how few people voted. According to numbers from the United States Election Project, 59.3 percent of eligible voters turned out and cast a ballot for the president. (60 percent showed up and voted for something; the 0.7 percent gap represents people who voted but did not vote for president.)

That’s stupid-crazy low for an advanced democracy like America’s. Pitiable, in fact. Yet it’s actually a better turnout than 2012, which tallied 58.6 percent of eligible voters, and it might be the best electoral turnout recorded between 1972 and 2000.

Voter turnout needs to improve. Two out of five eligible voters stayed home. If more of those abstainers had come out, we might not be in the mess we’re in today. If you’re mad at Clinton’s narrow loss to Trump, don’t vent your rage on people who voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson–at least they went to the polls. Point your ire at the 40 percent of voters who never made it.

Ok, we’re joking about that–don’t actually get mad at them. At least some wanted to cast a ballot, but could not. That said, we’re on watch for articles that explain why people who can vote don’t vote, and why they say they chose to stay home in 2016. When we find them, we’ll post about them.

Here’s what we know right now. According to 538, voters who stayed home in 2016 probably cost Clinton the election:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

In particular, turnout was low among young people (aged 18-29) and non-whites.

The silver lining to this? We know that Democratic-leaning and left-leaning people were less likely to go to the polls. You, personally, can help fix that.

Think about your friends. Do you know who among them did not vote? The math says that you probably have at least some non-voters in your midst. Maybe more than 60 percent of your friends voted, but not all of them.

If you know which of your friends did not vote, look for opportunities to discuss it with them. Don’t do this in a punitive way! Simply ask if they voted, and if they say no, ask why. Keep your tone of voice neutral.

If it’s something as simple as not being registered, or not having a ride to the polls, do what you can to remove those obstacles. The web site below will tell your friend if they’re registered to vote in their state:

http://www.canivote.org

If they are not registered, do what you can to help them register. If they would have voted if they had had transportation to the polls, make plans for 2018–see if you can give them a ride personally, or arrange for a cab.

If they had other reasons for not voting–they don’t think their vote matters, they didn’t like the candidates, they don’t trust the system, etc.–just keep talking to them. Don’t always talk politics–see to it that about 80 percent of the time, you talk about something else. And when you do talk politics, only occasionally talk about voting.

Build and strengthen your relationship with your non-voting friends with an eye on the coming 2018 race, and with the hopes of enticing those people to come with you to vote in the midterms.

 

See the full 2016 election numbers, compiled by the United States Election Project. It includes grand totals and state-by-state breakdowns:

http://www.electproject.org/2016g

 

Bookmark this page from the ElectProject site, which lists links to the boards of elections for all 50 states and the District of Columbia (scroll down a bit):

http://www.electproject.org/useful-election-links

 

See a 2012 piece on 538 that gives numbers on the 2012 turnout:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

 

Follow professor Michael P McDonald, the polysci guy behind the United States Election Project, on Twitter:

@ElectProject