This OTYCD entry originally posted in February 2017.
Learn whether and when to freak out over bills moving through Congress.
A while back, various corners of the internet whipped themselves into a minor freakout over H.R. 193, a bill that, if passed, would withdraw the United States from the United Nations.
In this Medium post, former Congressional aide Emily Ellsworth explains why H.R. 193 won’t go anywhere, and shows you how to spot the bills that could become laws.
To summarize her points:
No more than three percent of all bills became laws during the last four Congressional sessions.
Members of Congress introduce bills for lots of reasons, and making law isn’t necessarily one of them. They’re just as likely to offer a bill to:
Roust their base
Generate headlines back home
She offers three tools for following legislation that matters to you, and schooling yourself on them before you call your members of Congress about them:
Also, when looking at a bill’s prospects to become law, keep these thoughts in mind:
How many times has the bill been introduced before without going anywhere? If the answer is “a whole honking lot,” it’ll probably stall this time too.
Bills get referred to relevant Congressional committees. Do the bill’s sponsors and cosponsors actually sit on the right committee? If not, its chances aren’t that great.
Is the timing right? A bill that has to do with Standing Rock and the pipeline under construction will probably get more traction now than a general environmental bill.
How well does the bill suit the broader plans of the majority party? Congressional leaders will likely prioritize those.
…And this is where we at OTYCD feel compelled to admit a possible mistake.
About 10 days ago we wrote a blog post asking you to oppose H.R. 490, a bill that would ban abortion upon detection of a heartbeat. Its sponsor, Iowa Republican Steve King, dubbed it the Heartbeat Protection Act of 2017.
While it is a legitimate bill and King evidently hasn’t introduced something like it in previous sessions of Congress, it’s likely to wither and die. As of February 4, the Govtrack.com site says it has yet to be referred to a committee, and the Govtrack summary of the bill cites Predictgov odds of passage at 4 percent.
We will continue to watch this house bill and other bills of interest, but we admit (and, frankly, hope) H.R. 490 may well go nowhere.
See the Govtrack.com summary of H.R. 490:
See the OTYCD post on H.R. 490: