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Believe It, You Matter, Part VIII: No Matter What the Polls Say, Act Like Your Candidates Are Ten Points Behind

ThisOTYCD post originally appeared in July 2018. In the lead-up to the midterms, we’re re-running important posts. Please click on the announcement from Sarah Jane to learn why you’re not seeing timely daily posts.

 

No matter what the polls say, always act like your candidates are ten points behind.

 

If you’ve been watching the polls on “generic Democratic Congressional candidates” vs the GOP, you know that they’ve been all over the place–sometimes giving the Dems a huge lead, sometimes showing the GOP closing the gap.

 

Ignore those polls.

 

Ok, let’s be more specific. No matter what’s happening with the polls, always act like the candidates you’re supporting are ten points behind. Even if they’re not.

 

2018 promises to be the most consequential midterm election in several decades, and possibly the most consequential since midterms began.

 

You need to focus and stay focused on your candidates. (You’re using the Core Four technique, yes?)

 

Keep talking to friends and family about them. Keep volunteering for them. Keep donating to them regularly (small sums given monthly are better than a big lump sum given once). Keep boosting them on social media.

 

Stick to your schedule of self-imposed breaks. Burnout is a thing. We need you. Yes, things are bad and this election is crucial, but still, don’t try to do everything all the time or you won’t be able to do anything.

 

And! Keep talking to friends and family about voting, and make sure everyone you know is registered to vote, knows where the polling place is, and knows how they’re getting there on the day.

 

Polls say many things. Don’t be lulled into complacency if your candidates are doing well.  Keep putting in the same amount of time, money, and effort that you’ve put in all along, and encourage everyone you know who’s game to do more than show up and vote to do whatever else they’re willing to do, whatever that is.

 

Stay strong. Stay steady. Stay focused.

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Support Democrat Harley Rouda’s Campaign for California’s 48th District and Unseat Republican Dana Rohrabacher

Support Democrat Harley Rouda’s campaign to win the House of Representatives seat in California’s 48th Congressional District and unseat Republican Dana Rohrabacher.

 

It was inevitable that the 2018 race in California’s 48th would command attention. Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has held the seat since 1988 (that’s not a typo, you read that right, he’s been there almost 30 years) and he is widely seen as being in the pocket of Vladimir Putin and Russia.

 

This goes beyond an affinity for blinis and borscht.

 

In 2012, the FBI warned Rohrabacher that the Kremlin regards him as being so Russia-friendly that they gave him a code name:

 

 

In October 2017, news broke that House Republican leaders restricted his ability to use Congressional funds on travel because of his closeness to Russia:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-leaders-refusing-to-pay-for-dana-rohrabachers-travel-over-russia-fears

 

 

A June 2016 recording, which was subsequently heard and confirmed by Washington Post reporters, captured House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy stating, “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump.” House Speaker Paul Ryan reportedly stopped the conversation and swore everyone listening to secrecy.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-mccarthy-ryan-trump-putin-20170517-story.html

 

 

Politico wrote a November 23, 2016 story on Rohrabacher that bluntly calls him “Putin’s Favorite Congressman”:

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/putin-congress-rohrabacher-trump-231775

 

 

There’s enough there there that Special Counsel Robert Mueller was reportedly scrutinizing Rohrabacher as of November 2017:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/11/robert-mueller-dana-rohrabacher-russia-investigation

 

 

The good news is Rohrabacher’s entanglements with Russia have put his House seat in danger. Here are two stories on that theme, both from April 2018:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/everyone-is-painting-gop-congressman-dana-rohrabacher-as-putins-puppet

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-rohrabacher-gop-20180405-story.html

 

 

The Cook Political Report shows the trouble the Republican incumbent is in. It rates his seat as a Toss-up.

 

Democrats need to gain at least 24 seats in the House of Representatives to take control of the chamber. Those who know say that eight of those 24 could flip in California. The 48th is one of those eight.

 

After a ferociously fought June 5, 2018 top-two primary that included eight Democrats among 15 challengers for Rohrabacher’s seat, Harley Rouda took second place by 126 votes. (Thanks again for your efforts, Hans Keirstead.)

 

This seat is eminently gettable, and Rouda is raring to get it. Please look at the links below and see if you can support him. Rouda promises to be tougher on Russia than Rohrabacher is, but to be fair, it’s mathematically impossible not to be tougher on Russia than Rohrabacher is.

 

 

See Rouda’s campaign website:

https://harleyforcongress.com

 

 

See his About page:

https://harleyforcongress.com/about-harley/

 

 

See his Issues page:

https://harleyforcongress.com/issues/

 

 

 

Choose Rouda for your Core Four:

https://onethingyoucando.com/2018/04/08/choose-your-core-four-for-2018/

 

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

 

 

Donate to Rouda’s campaign:

https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/rouda?refcode=www

 

 

Volunteer for Rouda:

https://harleyforcongress.com/volunteer/

 

 

Like him on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/pg/HarleyforCongress/posts/

 

 

Follow him on Twitter:

@HarleyRouda

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Support Democrat J.D. Scholten’s Bid to Unseat Noxious Iowa House Rep Steve King

Support Democrat J.D. Scholten’s bid to unseat noxious Iowa House Rep Steve King.

 

In the age of Trump, Republican incumbents in garnet-red parts of America are finally drawing Democratic challengers. Steve King leads that list. He’s represented Iowa’s 4th District since 2002, and he’s running again in 2018.

 

He is also a racist. He has enough self-awareness to avoid tweeting slurs or saying them when microphones are live and cameras are rolling, but there’s no doubt–the man is a racist.

 

In a 2013 interview with the right-wing news and opinion website NewsMax, and evidently in the context of discussing legislative protections for people who came to the U.S. as undocumented children, he said:

For every one who’s a valedictorian, there’s another 100 out there who weigh 130 pounds and they’ve got calves the size of cantaloupes because they’re hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert. (Cite is below.)

https://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/24/no-comment-necessary-drug-mules/

 

 

In 2017, King tweeted praise for a far-right Dutch politician and said, ‘We can’t restore civilization with someone else’s babies.’ (Cite is below.)

 

Most recently, King was revealed as the source of false information that Donald Trump mentioned in a June 22, 2018 event where he tried to smear all undocumented people. Trump claimed that since September 11, 2001, 63,000 Americans had died at the hands of who he called “illegal aliens.”

 

Snopes and the Washington Post traced the claim to a mid-2000s blog post by King, and both laid out evidence that debunked it:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/06/22/the-original-source-for-trumps-claim-of-63000-immigrant-murders-bad-data-from-steve-king-in-2005/?utm_term=.fa80bc5ed3e4

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/have-undocumented-killed-63000-us-9-11/

 

Where does J.D. Scholten come in, you may ask? He’s stepped up to run against King as a Democrat.

 

 

Scholten is a fifth-generation Iowan, a former professional baseball player, a current litigation paralegal, and a first-time candidate for office. He works Twitter well, and he has the support of the student activists from Parkland, Florida, who got behind him after King’s campaign shared a Facebook meme that mocked Emma Gonzales, a prominent member of the Parkland group.

Read an April 2018 Slate story about how the Parkland activists came to champion Scholten:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/can-parkland-activists-help-democrat-j-d-scholten-defeat-iowa-rep-steve-king.html

 

 

But let’s be clear-eyed here. Of all the Democratic candidates for office who OTYCD has featured to date, Scholten might have the toughest climb. King fought off a Republican  challenger in the June 5 primary with ease, beating her 3-to-1. The Cook Political report rates Iowa’s 4th as Solid Republican.

 

King is the longtime incumbent and he’s won re-election after saying toe-curlingly awful things before. It seems that a fair number of Iowans shrug and vote for him (and there are some who grin and vote for him, don’t be fooled). And registered Republican voters significantly outnumber registered Democratic voters in Iowa’s 4th.

 

But as they say, you can’t win if you don’t play. Scholten is suited up and ready to go. Have a look at his campaign site and the links below and consider supporting him.

 

 

See Scholten’s website:

https://www.scholten4iowa.com

 

 

See his Meet JD page:

https://www.scholten4iowa.com/Meet-Jd

 

 

See his Endorsements page:

https://www.scholten4iowa.com/endorsements

 

 

Read a May 31, 2018 Op-Ed in the Sioux City Journal in which Scholten explains why Iowans should vote for him:

https://siouxcityjournal.com/opinion/columnists/j-d-scholten-here-s-why-you-should-vote-for/article_5162d965-a0a2-539a-b3ec-e6971f2fe9c5.html

 

 

Choose Scholten for your Core Four:

https://onethingyoucando.com/2018/04/08/choose-your-core-four-for-2018/

 

 

Donate to Scholten’s campaign:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/scholtenhome

 

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

 

 

Like him on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Scholten4Iowa/

 

 

Follow him on Twitter:

@Scholten4Iowa

 

 

Read stories, both from 2017, about why Steve King’s political career doesn’t seem to suffer when he says racist things:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/why-steve-king-keeps-winning-214913

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/steve-king-nearer-the-throne/519336/

 

 

Read a March 2017 Vox piece about King’s history of saying racist things:

https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/3/13/14908184/steve-king-racist

 

 

 

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Believe It, You Matter, Part XI: Convince Your Friends and Family That They Matter

This OTYCD post originally appeared in July 2018.

 

Believe It, You Matter, Part XI: Convince your friends and family that they matter.

 

If we’re going to deliver the rebuke that Trump sorely needs in November, it can’t be just you who goes to the polls.

 

You can have a broader impact by talking to friends and family about the need to vote in the fall, and helping them complete the steps to make sure they’re able to vote in the fall.

 

First off, you have been talking to them about voting, yes? If not, school yourself with these links:

https://onethingyoucando.com/2017/12/16/smoke-out-your-friends-who-didnt-vote-in-2016-and-cultivate-them/

https://onethingyoucando.com/2018/04/08/believe-it-you-matter-part-v-your-friends-and-family-matter-are-you-talking-to-them-about-voting-in-2018/

 

Talk to them, and keep talking to them.

 

In order to be successful, you may have to do some work for them. Remember how little you knew about elections and government when you kicked into action? Yeah, they might know less, and if you end up giving them what amounts to homework, you can’t be sure they’ll follow through. Take as much of the work out of the process as possible.

 

Let me be blunt. You have to be their voting concierge. Their voting butler. Their voting valet. DO THE WORK FOR THEM AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. Make it easy.

 

 

Help them learn if they’re registered to vote:

carnivote.org

If they aren’t, help them get registered. That might mean helping them apply for documents they need to obtain IDs. Be prepared to do that. Consider taking time off work to help them.

 

They may not know which races are in play, or who the candidates are. You might need to teach yourself who’s running, especially if your friends and family don’t live where you live. Can you do that work? Can you ready yourself for their questions?

 

They may not know where to go to vote come November 6, 2018. The best way to do that is to look up the website for the secretary of state of your friend or family member’s home state. It should have a section on voting and elections that will help you both find the specific current polling place.

 

They may not know how they’re getting to the polls on November 6, 2018. Help them figure it out. If you can offer to drive them, do it. If you can arrange for cab fare, set it aside.

 

Again, it can’t just be you going to the polls in the fall. You need to encourage as many people as possible to follow your lead.

 

The more who vote, the greater the chances we have to push back against Trump in a fiercely powerful way.

Candidates · Choose Your Core Four

Re-elect Washington, D.C. Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton, Because She is Awesome

Re-elect Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton, Congresswoman for the District of Columbia, because she is awesome.

 

Norton is in her fourteenth Congressional term. Because she represents the District of Columbia, she is a non-voting member of the House, which means she cannot join votes on the floor of the House. This does not stop her from being awesome and fierce. She serves on several House committees and can speak on the House floor.

 

She continues to pursue legislation that would give Washington, D.C. a vote in the House of Representatives. She belongs to the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the Congressional Black Caucus.

 

 

If you’re thinking, “I know she’s awesome, but I can’t remember how I know that,” let us refresh your memory. You saw her on The Colbert Report back in the day:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/6quypd/the-colbert-report-better-know-a-district—district-of-columbia—eleanor-holmes-norton

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/zf1m9m/the-colbert-report-d-c–voting-rights—eleanor-holmes-norton

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/ez9npn/the-colbert-report-eleanor-holmes-norton

 

Yeah. Give her support and campaign donations, please.

 

 

See Norton’s Congressional webpage:

https://norton.house.gov

 

 

See Norton’s 2018 campaign website:

http://www.nortonforcongress.org/home.html

 

 

Donate to Norton’s campaign:

http://www.nortonforcongress.org/donation.html

 

 

Choose her for your Core Four:

https://onethingyoucando.com/2017/12/24/choose-your-core-four-for-2018/

 

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

 

 

Like her on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/CongresswomanNorton/?ref=s

 

 

Follow her on Twitter:

@EleanorNorton

 

 

Norton appears on Luvvie’s list of black woman candidates running for office in 2018. See Luvvie’s full list and our post about the list:

http://database.blackwomeninpolitics.com/candidate/custom?q=federal

https://onethingyoucando.com/2018/01/13/look-over-luvvies-list-of-black-women-who-are-running-for-office-and-support-them/

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Support Katie Porter’s Run to Unseat California House Republican Mimi Walters

Support Democrat Katie Porter’s run to unseat California House Republican Mimi Walters.

 

To flip the House of Representatives to Democratic control, the party needs to pick up at least 24 seats. Those who know say that the Democrats need to gain at least a third of those 24 in California.

 

Katie Porter has a harder road to walk than, say, Harley Rouda or Gil Cisneros. Unlike those two, whose California Congressional districts the Cook Political Report rates as Toss-ups, the 45th district carries a Lean Republican tag.

 

Republican Mimi Walters, first elected in 2014, has fallen in behind Trump and has consistently voted for bills he likes. That should rankle those in her district, who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

 

Porter is a professor at University of California, Irvine and a protege of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. She specializes in fighting home mortgage lenders who mistreat their clients. When Kamala Harris was still the state’s attorney general, she chose Porter to monitor a $25 billion mortgage settlement on behalf of California.

 

Porter has an opening, but she’ll need support to make this happen. Have a look at the links below and see if she’s the right candidate for you.

 

 

See Porter’s campaign website:

https://katieporter.com

 

 

See her Issues page:

https://katieporter.com/issues

 

 

See her Endorsements page:

https://katieporter.com/endorsements

 

 

Choose Porter for your Core Four:

https://onethingyoucando.com/2018/04/08/choose-your-core-four-for-2018/

 

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

 

 

Donate to Porter’s campaign:

https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/kp18?refcode=header_donate

 

 

Like Porter on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/katieporteroc

 

 

Follow her on Twitter:

@katieporteroc

 

 

Read additional articles about Porter that predate the June 5, 2018 primary:

https://www.ocregister.com/2017/04/03/all-the-facts-on-katie-porter-challenger-to-rep-mimi-walterss-re-election-bid/

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article142177884.html

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Support Democrat Gil Cisneros’s Campaign for Ed Royce’s Old California House Seat

Support Democrat Gil Cisneros, who’s running for the House of Representatives seat in California’s 39th District that Republican Ed Royce is leaving.

 

To flip the House of Representatives to Democratic control, the party needs to win at least 24 seats in the fall elections that are currently Republican.

 

California offers many opportunities for Democratic pickups–at least eight. The 39th District is one of them. Ed Royce, a particularly noxious Republican who held the Orange County seat for the last 26 years has announced he would retire.

 

Cisneros came second in a very crowded June 5 primary. California uses a top-two system where the two candidates who get the most votes advance to the general, no matter what party they’re from. He beat 15 other candidates to earn the right to compete.

 

The only person who got more votes than him, the Royce-endorsed Young Kim, drew almost 22 percent of the vote to Cisneros’s 19.3 percent.

 

The California 39th seat is gettable. The Cook Political Report rates it as a Toss-up.

 

Please learn about Cisneros and see if he is someone you can support.

 

 

See Cisneros’s campaign site:

https://cisnerosforcongress.com

 

 

See his Meet Gil page:

https://cisnerosforcongress.com/meet-gil/

 

 

See his Issues page, which includes sections on health care for all, getting corporate money out of politics, and holding President Trump accountable:

https://cisnerosforcongress.com/gilsplan/

 

 

Donate to Cisneros’s campaign:

https://secure.ngpvan.com/cS9iYUBauE2-Znc9wKbzkA2

 

 

Choose Cisneros for your Core Four:

https://onethingyoucando.com/2018/04/08/choose-your-core-four-for-2018/

 

 

Like him on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/GilCisnerosCA/

 

 

Follow him on Twitter:

@GilCisnerosCA

 

 

Read a July 2017 Los Angeles Times piece about Cisneros’s entry into the race, in which he mentions that he left the Republican Party in 2008 because he didn’t like the direction in which the party was going:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-ed-royce-challenger-gil-1500080377-htmlstory.html

 

 

Subscribe to One Thing You Can Do by clicking the button on the upper right of the page. And tell your friends about the blog!

 

 

Read stories about Ed Royce’s retirement from Congress:

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/10/veteran-rep-ed-royce-wont-run-for-re-election/

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/01/08/ed-royce-longtime-o-c-congressman-plans-to-retire/